5124 Harpers Croft #7

The Meadows, FL 34235

$238,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$511
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-543/mo
• Annual: $-6,521/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-543 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#465 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?