140 Togus Rd

Chelsea, ME 04330

$188,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1861 · Other · Pending · 451 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,132/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.75%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $52,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 12 (rural): math 86% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #50 of 112 in ME (top 45%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elementary School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #77 of 294 statewide, top 33%, 287 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1861 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $188k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,122/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1861 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.