4915 Swegle Rd NE #24

Four Corners, OR 97305

$165,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,672/yr
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in OR, #2,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: crime D-.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swegle Elementary School (520 students, 74% FRL); Mckay High School (2,311 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.9% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.