1009 Country Club Rd

Ennis, TX 75119

$95,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,050 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,022
• Tax + insurance: −$768
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-730/mo
• Annual: $-8,765/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $107,946

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-730 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.1% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?