29 Horizon Dr

New York Mills, NY 13413

$129,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $680/mo
• Annual: $8,155/yr
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.42%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Myles Elementary School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 355 students, 34% FRL); Perry Junior High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 584 students, 21% FRL); New Hartford Senior High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 645 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 9% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 5.1% in New York Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — The landscaping is minimal and could be improved with some additional plants and mulch.
• Minor: Interior paint — The interior walls appear to be painted, but the quality is not clear from the photos and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint.