3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,511 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 220 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,600/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$584
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$336
Net cashflow
$-212/mo
Annual
$-2,544/yr
Cap rate
7.81%
Cash-on-cash
5.41%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (22.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.9% below list).
It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $133k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 976 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-86Z0MH7GFT6EJ8
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29