5304 Lillian Hwy

West Pensacola, FL 32506

$251,409D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,625 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,240/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,318
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $330/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $70,395

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $251k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Myrtle Grove Elementary School (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 446 students, 80% FRL); Warrington Middle School (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #553 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 573 students, 87% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 58% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $251k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.