4539 Coon Creek Rd

Salyersville, KY 41465

$72,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1959 · Other · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $322/mo
• Annual: $3,863/yr
• Cap rate: 11.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.03%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $20,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#133 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Magoffin County (rural): math 13% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #161 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Salyersville Grade School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 499 students, 78% FRL); Herald Whitaker Middle School (math 13% / reading 32%, grade F, #200 of 217 statewide, top 93%, 250 students, 72% FRL); Magoffin County High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 637 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.
• Magoffin County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.