4100 Daniels Ave #303

Annandale, VA 22003

$220,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 941 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$610
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,728/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (18.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in VA, #293 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Belvedere Elementary (math 61% / reading 70%, grade B+, #410 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 617 students, 50% FRL); Glasgow Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #256 of 342 statewide, top 75%, 1,789 students, 80% FRL); Falls Church High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #299 of 319 statewide, top 94%, 2,118 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 21% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 67% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fairfax County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $220k implies a 920% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.7% in Annandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.