2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,365 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Active
· 591 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$8,003/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$205
Tax + insurance
−$65
HOA
−$1,969
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,681
Net cashflow
$4,084/mo
Annual
$49,008/yr
Cap rate
131.96%
Cash-on-cash
448.79%
DSCR
20.97
1% rule
20.52%
Cash to close
$10,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $39k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $39k).
It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
At $8,003/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-87TC9AC1M0GG97
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29