16826 E Lamplighter Way #8

Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$350,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$320
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,650/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $350k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?