153 W Beech Ave

Hermiston, OR 97838

$299,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 274 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,667/yr
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.16%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#158 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Hermiston SD 8 (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 183 in OR (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Heights Elementary School (446 students, 68% FRL); Armand Larive Middle School (726 students, 68% FRL); Hermiston High School (1,739 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 205 units permitted in Umatilla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Umatilla County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $299k implies a 1259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.7% in Hermiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.