654 2nd Ave

Williamsport, PA 17701

$420,000B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,736 sqft · Built 1901 · MultiFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$713
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,719
• Net cashflow: $3,551/mo
• Annual: $42,616/yr
• Cap rate: 16.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.80%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 7 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $507/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#523 in PA, #4,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Williamsport Area SD (urban): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #349 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 6.1% in Williamsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,186/mo this rent would consume 185% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.