450 Hill St

Oxnard, CA 93033

$12,250,000F

4416 bd · 2304.0 ba · 17,100 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $74,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$64,240
• Tax + insurance: −$20,417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$15,700
• Net cashflow: $-25,593/mo
• Annual: $-307,121/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $3,430,000

Investor read

• This is a 44×2bd/1.0ba + 4×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $12.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26k ($-307k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-533/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $8.55M (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $7.48M (39.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $7.48M (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $85k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $368k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#905 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, health & safety A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities D-.
• Oxnard Union High (urban): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 31 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.5% in Oxnard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $74,764/mo this rent would consume 1028% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1968% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?