3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,576 sqft ·
Built 1992
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,750/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,306
Tax + insurance
−$304
HOA
−$8
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$788
Net cashflow
$1,345/mo
Annual
$16,138/yr
Cap rate
12.77%
Cash-on-cash
23.15%
DSCR
2.03
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$69,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#813 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 0.6% in Buchanan Dam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-88QR9P3XZPBREG
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29