4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,081 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$19,439/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$11,275
Tax + insurance
−$1,954
HOA
−$654
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$4,082
Net cashflow
$1,475/mo
Annual
$17,696/yr
Cap rate
7.12%
Cash-on-cash
2.94%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$602,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.15M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.94M (9.6% below list).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.94M (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jerry Thomas Elementary School (math 60% / reading 67%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 718 students, 41% FRL); Independence Middle School (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,166 students, 25% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.7% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
CashFlowRE · CFR-89B1FV2VJNM9G8
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29