5933 Lincoln Hwy W

Spring Grove, PA 17364

$130,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 801 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $177/mo
• Annual: $2,125/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#325 in PA, #3,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Grove Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #98 of 539 in PA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Paradise El Sch (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 342 students, 46% FRL); Spring Grove Area Intrmd Sch (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #76 of 512 statewide, top 16%, 651 students, 38% FRL); Spring Grove Area Hs (math 71%, 1,166 students, 32% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $130k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Spring Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major: Windows — No photos of windows
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation