439 E Walnut St

York, PA 17403

$80,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,363/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $526/mo
• Annual: $6,307/yr
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $80k implies a 841% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 5.0% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.