5516 Morant Bay Path

Poinciana, FL 34758

$319,650F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,676
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$124
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-465/mo
• Annual: $-5,582/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $89,502

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (26.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $236k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Academy of Fine Arts (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 66% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 612 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.