803 Green St

Rio Vista, TX 76093

$343,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,799
• Tax + insurance: −$726
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-1,069/mo
• Annual: $-12,832/yr
• Cap rate: 2.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.36%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $96,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $343k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (55.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (46.3% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (55.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#524 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rio Vista ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #588 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 486 students, 66% FRL); Rio Vista Middle (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 212 students, 56% FRL); Rio Vista H S (math 64% / reading 44%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 247 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.