10100 S Gessner Rd #202

Houston, TX 77071

$58,000C

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$310
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $599/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $16,240

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($599/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $422 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?