4401 River Valley Dr #1205

Corpus Christi, TX 78410

$95,000C-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,670 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$637
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-252/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-252/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Calallen ISD (urban): math 42% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #249 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 7850% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.