6 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,892 sqft ·
Built 1947
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,553/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$536
Net cashflow
$498/mo
Annual
$5,970/yr
Cap rate
9.01%
Cash-on-cash
9.70%
DSCR
1.43
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $220k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Sunland Elementary School (math 7% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,045 of 1,109 statewide, top 95%, 569 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 36% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Signs of significant damage
Major: exterior siding
— Worn and peeling
Major: fencing
— Structurally compromised and in need of replacement
CashFlowRE · CFR-8B41WEAGQSE30N
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29