19777 N 76th St #2291

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$459,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$529
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$861
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-412/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-412/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $404k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 19474% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $263k; list at $459k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?