3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,422 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,195/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$181
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$251
Net cashflow
$-154/mo
Annual
$-1,852/yr
Cap rate
5.23%
Cash-on-cash
-3.78%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (15.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (31.7% below list).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,503 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Detroit ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #306 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Detroit El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 237 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $175k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8C51YC9H8D13DN
· Data 3 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29