4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,608 sqft ·
Built 1940
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,259/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$312
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$474
Net cashflow
$607/mo
Annual
$7,286/yr
Cap rate
10.71%
Cash-on-cash
15.77%
DSCR
1.70
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $304/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $51k; list at $165k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8C9AD329N09S5H
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29