201 N 5th St

Bithlo, FL 32833

$240,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $49/mo
• Annual: $592/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#808 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $240k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Bithlo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.