3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
792 sqft ·
Built 1890
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 659 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,221/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$256
Net cashflow
$261/mo
Annual
$3,136/yr
Cap rate
9.98%
Cash-on-cash
13.18%
DSCR
1.59
1% rule
1.44%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 659 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hyde Park School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 505 students, 81% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $31k; list at $85k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 659 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and faded appearance.
Moderate: Exterior paint
— Faded appearance.
Minor: Landscaping
— Needs trimming and freshening up.
Minor: Interior walls/paint
— No photos provided, but likely needs touch-up or fresh paint.
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