2550 Cienaga St #35

Oceano, CA 93445

$314,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-988/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-988/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oceano Elementary (359 students, 85% FRL); Paulding Middle (536 students, 47% FRL); Arroyo Grande High (1,991 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $315k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in Oceano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.