585 25 1/2 Rd #197

Grand Junction, CO 81505

$73,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$385
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$680
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $403/mo
• Annual: $4,837/yr
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.50%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 2.62%
• Cash to close: $20,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $508 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pomona Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 347 students, 44% FRL); West Middle School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #121 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 316 students, 34% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $74k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.