181 Knowlton Ave

Kenmore, NY 14217

$149,900C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,557 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,723/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $325/mo
• Annual: $3,906/yr
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#114 in NY, #1,843 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.0% in Kenmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.