2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,394/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$293
Net cashflow
$514/mo
Annual
$6,168/yr
Cap rate
13.55%
Cash-on-cash
25.92%
DSCR
2.15
1% rule
1.64%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Michael T Simmons Elementary (479 students, 40% FRL); Tumwater Middle School (616 students, 32% FRL); A G West Black Hills High School (833 students, 32% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.8% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8DFHYC32J99MGJ
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29