17506 W Van Buren St #86

Goodyear, AZ 85338

$225,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $536/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($536/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Thunder (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 911 students, 50% FRL); Avondale Middle School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #160 of 218 statewide, top 75%, 409 students, 78% FRL); Verrado High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #130 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,854 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.