4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,667 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,036/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$375
HOA
−$100
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$427
Net cashflow
$-47/mo
Annual
$-562/yr
Cap rate
6.04%
Cash-on-cash
-0.89%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-562/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (3.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (9.5% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $204k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Freiheit El (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 910 students, 55% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1958 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8EG4RV7D5GW6NT
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29