605 Finlee Way

Tioga, TX 76271

$356,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,509/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,867
• Tax + insurance: −$724
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-634/mo
• Annual: $-7,611/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $99,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $356k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-634 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (29.5% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.