12594 Kennedy Flat Rd #10

Martell, CA 95642

$39,000B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 740 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,132/yr
• Cap rate: 19.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.00%
• DSCR: 3.09
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,240 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.