11423 Philip Dr

Socorro, TX 79927

$152,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax + insurance: −$522
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $133/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $42,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($133/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $152k implies a 383% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.