6902 E Sheena Dr

Phoenix, AZ 85254

$899,000D+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,346 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,736/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$676
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,415
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-829/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-829/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $887k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $674k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $674k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandpiper Elementary School (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B, #127 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 443 students, 8% FRL); Desert Shadows Middle School (math 45% / reading 52%, grade C-, #32 of 218 statewide, top 15%, 780 students, 7% FRL); Horizon High School (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #72 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,905 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 29% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $899k implies a 1038% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,736/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) (locally 1263% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.