11753 Spring Dr

Miami, OK 74354

$25,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $721/mo
• Annual: $8,650/yr
• Cap rate: 40.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 123.57%
• DSCR: 6.50
• 1% rule: 4.52%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#327 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Miami (town): math 17% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #194 of 270 in OK (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Ottawa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ottawa County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 40.9% vs local median 5.2% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.