1815 Stubblefield Rd

Pocahontas, AR 72455

$139,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Price Change · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $49/mo
• Annual: $583/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($583/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Pocahontas School District (rural): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #165 of 238 in AR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alma Spikes Elementary School (645 students, 67% FRL); Pocahontas Junior High School (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #146 of 201 statewide, top 74%, 503 students, 53% FRL); Pocahontas High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 411 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randolph County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Pocahontas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.