1 bd · None ba ·
640 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 157 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$775/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$163
Net cashflow
$267/mo
Annual
$3,210/yr
Cap rate
12.73%
Cash-on-cash
22.97%
DSCR
2.02
1% rule
1.55%
Cash to close
$13,972
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($775 rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#218 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Cabool R-IV (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #275 of 324 in MO (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.0% in Cabool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.