2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
874 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,764/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$627
HOA
−$897
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$370
Net cashflow
$-759/mo
Annual
$-9,111/yr
Cap rate
2.97%
Cash-on-cash
-11.88%
DSCR
0.47
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$33,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-759 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $10k (91.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $10k (91.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 639 students, 40% FRL); Seven Springs Middle School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,628 students, 36% FRL); James W. Mitchell High School (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B-, #100 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,155 students, 32% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 51% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 805 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— Paint appears faded in some areas
Minor: Appliances
— Standard appliances may need cleaning
CashFlowRE · CFR-8H3JFTF8X70QKQ
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29