14717 Turkey Hills Rd

Oklahoma City, OK 74857

$158,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $453/mo
• Annual: $5,433/yr
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.08%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Little Axe (rural): math 10% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #236 of 270 in OK (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Little Axe Es (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #667 of 845 statewide, top 82%, 587 students, 0% FRL); Little Axe Hs (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #332 of 447 statewide, top 78%, 331 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 592 units permitted in Cleveland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleveland County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.