405 NW Grist Ml

Bentonville, AR 72712

$605,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,173
• Tax + insurance: −$1,008
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,065
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,185/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $169,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $605k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $579k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $507k (16.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $507k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#2 in AR, #864 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Bentonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,070/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($111k/yr) (locally 932% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.