4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,885 sqft ·
Built 1946
· Other
· Pending
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,122/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$159
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$656
Net cashflow
$1,521/mo
Annual
$18,252/yr
Cap rate
18.46%
Cash-on-cash
43.46%
DSCR
2.93
1% rule
2.08%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#13 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F.
Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $47k; list at $150k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.7% in Albuquerque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,122/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1175% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8HP4F2607YDSAD
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29