409 W Harrison Rd

Longview, TX 75604

$90,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1931 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,771/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.00%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Pine Tree ISD (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #376 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Pri (501 students, 76% FRL); Pine Tree J H (math 40% / reading 44%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 709 students, 71% FRL); Pine Tree H S (math 52% / reading 43%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,319 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.