612 Elba Ave

Prichard, AL 36612

$47,900A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $470/mo
• Annual: $5,643/yr
• Cap rate: 18.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.07%
• DSCR: 2.87
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $13,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($963 rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($331 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#472 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Collinsrhodes Elementary School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #499 of 627 statewide, top 80%, 615 students, 90% FRL); Chastangfournier Middle School (math 0% / reading 15%, grade F, #598 of 627 statewide, top 96%, 551 students, 96% FRL); Mattie T Blount High School (math 2% / reading 3%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,176 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 67% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $48k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.