463 Ramey Br

Paintsville, KY 41219

$25,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,587/yr
• Cap rate: 32.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.10%
• DSCR: 5.19
• 1% rule: 3.65%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($913 rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#117 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Central High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #200 of 254 statewide, top 79%, 955 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 3.2% in Paintsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.