3077 N Ranchview Rd

Snowflake, AZ 85937

$250,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-440/mo
• Annual: $-5,279/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (34.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Primary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #180 of 1,109 statewide, top 17%, 525 students, 45% FRL); Snowflake Junior High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #22 of 218 statewide, top 10%, 486 students, 44% FRL); Snowflake High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 943 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.