2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,536 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Manufactured
· Active
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,195/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$461
Net cashflow
$836/mo
Annual
$10,028/yr
Cap rate
14.01%
Cash-on-cash
27.55%
DSCR
2.23
1% rule
1.69%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#313 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D, amenities D-, commute F.
Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.8% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8J682BEZMSXVJ7
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29